sábado, 17 de noviembre de 2007

Por lo general, ante las elecciones de cargos ejecutivos, los candidatos se alían con algún técnico que desarrolle el plan económico que será su estandarte en la campaña. Éste será también su ministro de hacienda ante un eventual triunfo.
Sin embargo, nuestro país tiene más tradición (como dice Zaiat) de astrólogos más que de economistas. Gurúes y agoreros con la efectividad de pronóstico de una máquina tragamonedas.
En la reciente elección Elisa Carrió tomó la polémica decisión de incorporar en sus filas a Alfonso Prat Gay, el ex presidente del Banco Central (BCRA).
El joven economista ortodoxo, que había trabajado para la financiera internacional JP Morgan y en los equipos técnicos de Mauricio Macri, elaboró un plan basado principalmente en “resolver los desequilibrios heredados sin caer en recesión”.
Prat Gay fue removido del Banco Central en 2004 por el presidente Néstor Kirchner luego de haber realizado duras críticas a la renegociación de la deuda con el FMI y los bonistas privados que llevaba adelante Roberto Lavagna.
Cuando asumió como presidente del BCRA, en 2003, estableció junto al Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) las siguientes metas para la economía argentina: Una inflación anual del 35%, el dólar a $3,85 y una tasa de interés aproximada del 15%. La realidad fue un poco distinta, la inflación fue del 3,7%, la tasa por encima del 20% y el dólar alcanzó los $2,85 y el BCRA tuvo que salir a comprar moneda para que no siga bajando. En fin, ninguno de sus pronósticos se cumplió y debió rediseñar toda la estrategia que había marcado.
Alfonso Prat Gay había augurado también que el valor del Euro no superaría al del Dólar, y lo superó ampliamente. Sin duda, su fuerte no son los pronósticos.
Es evidente que los economistas en argentina no solo apelan a la adivinación sino además a otras “artes obscuras” para mantenerse vigentes a pesar de tantas equivocaciones.







Prat Gay presentando el plan económico de un gobierno que no fue


Por Nahuel

ANEXO
Cómo conseguir un contrato como consultor usando un poco de matemática
Por Adrián Paenza


Uno puede hacerse pasar por adivino o por una persona muy entrenada en predecir el futuro o aventurar lo que va a pasar en la Bolsa de Valores: basta con aprovechar la rapidez con la que crecen las potencias de un número.Este es un ejemplo muy interesante. Supongamos que tenemos una base de datos de 128.000 personas. (Por las dudas, no crean que son tantas, ya que la mayoría de las grandes empresas las tienen, las compran o las averiguan.) De todas formas, a los efectos de lo que quiero invitarlos a pensar, podríamos partir de un número más chico e igualmente el efecto sería el mismo.
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